The words used on Linecast, explained plainly. Linecast is information only: we do not take bets, hold money, or pay prizes, and nothing here is advice to bet.
PRICES AND ODDS
- Moneyline
- A bet on who wins the game outright. No points or goals are added. Linecast's main picks are moneylines.Example: SF −150 / DEN +130.
- American odds (+ / −)
- A minus number is how much you risk to win 100; a plus number is how much you win on a 100 risk. −150 = risk 150 to win 100. +130 = risk 100 to win 130.Linecast uses units, so −150 = risk 1.5 units to win 1.
- Favorite / underdog
- The favorite has the minus price (more likely to win, pays less). The underdog has the plus price (less likely, pays more).
- Juice (vig) and juiced prices
- Juice is the bookmaker's built-in margin: both sides together are priced to more than 100%, so the book keeps a cut. A juiced moneyline on Linecast means a favorite at −150 or shorter. The juice box fills from mild (−150) to heavy (−200) to maxed (−400 or shorter).At −150 you need to win 60% just to break even; at −300 you need 75%. A likely winner is not automatically a good bet.
- Break-even win rate
- The win rate a price requires before you make or lose anything. It is the price turned into a probability, bookmaker margin included.−110 → 52.4% · −150 → 60% · +150 → 40%.
- No-vig (market) probability
- The bookmakers' prices with their margin removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. It is the market's best guess of each side's chance, and it is usually a very good forecast.
BET TYPES
- Spread (point spread, puck line, run line)
- A handicap: the favorite must win by more than the line, or the underdog must lose by less (or win). Hockey and baseball almost always use ±1.5; football and basketball use lines like −3 or +7.5.About 40% of NHL games are decided by one goal and about 15% of NFL games end on exactly 3 points, so the exact line matters.
- Alternate (alt) spread
- The same game at a different line than the main one, at a different price: lay fewer points for a worse price or more points for a better price. Linecast shows an estimated range with fair prices; real alt prices at a book are usually worse.
- Pivot (ML → spread)
- Linecast's name for looking at the same team's spread instead of a juiced moneyline. It is a different price, not a better bet: in our held-out backtest, juiced favorites returned −4.8% on the moneyline and −6.6% on the spread.
- Push
- A tie against the line (for example a 3-point win on a −3 spread). The stake is returned.
- Total (over/under)
- A bet on the combined score being over or under a number. A team total is the same thing for one team.
- Parlay
- Several bets combined into one: every leg must win, and the payout multiplies. Parlays increase risk: one losing leg loses the whole bet, and the bookmaker's margin is charged on every leg.Two 70% legs together are only about a 49% bet (if independent).
- Key numbers
- Margins that happen far more often than others. In the NFL, 3 and 7 (field goal and touchdown); about 15% of games end on exactly 3.
LINECAST TIERS AND TOOLS
- EDGE
- Our model disagrees with the no-vig market by more than a bar chosen on past seasons, and nothing in the market or lineup news argues against it. A short watch-list, not a promise: the held-out EDGE backtest is negative overall.
- LEAN
- A smaller gap than EDGE, or a big gap with an open question (unconfirmed starter, no market support).
- PASS
- No value at this price, a heavy favorite with nothing extra, or a red flag. PASS games are never counted as bets in our records.
- Model win chance (confidence)
- Our model's probability that a side wins (or covers). High confidence alone is not a reason to bet, because favorites are priced to match: the comparison with the market price (EDGE/LEAN) is what matters.
- Edge (gap)
- Model probability minus no-vig market probability for the same side, in percentage points.
- Climb the Mountain
- A paper challenge: a hypothetical $10 ladder rolled over three model picks. Nothing is wagered and nothing is paid out.
MEASURING RESULTS
- Units
- A fixed stake size used to compare results fairly. Linecast grades every play as 1 unit at the logged price.
- ROI
- Units won or lost divided by the plays made (pushes excluded). −2% means losing 2 units per 100 plays.
- Hit rate
- The share of plays that won. Misleading on its own: a 75% hit rate on −400 favorites still loses money.
- Closing-line value (CLV)
- How far the market moved toward our side between when we logged a pick and the game's start, in probability points. Beating the close consistently is the quickest honest sign of a real edge.
- Backtest, tuning and held-out seasons
- A backtest replays past games with the rules we use today. Rules are chosen on tuning seasons; held-out seasons are graded once afterwards as a fairer test. Live results since Oct 4, 2026 are tracked separately.
- Sample size
- How many plays a number is based on. Small samples swing wildly: an ROI on 100 plays has a margin of error of about ±10 points.
Past results and backtests do not predict future results. 21+ only. Gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.